Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
