A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
